The Case for Economic Dynamism

And why it matters for the American worker

Working Americans have far more to lose from an economy that is changing too little and too slowly than from one that is quickly adapting and advancing to new frontiers. But in recent decades, policymakers have ignored signs that the dynamic mechanisms at the heart of our economy were growing weaker. Worse still, policy failures at every level of government have contributed to the sclerosis that has slowly robbed the country of its vitality. From NIMBYs to non-competes, vested interests have steadily weighed the economy down with artificial barriers to mobility, competition, and adaptation. These barriers have made our economy less abundant in opportunity and less able to improve the lives of ordinary Americans.
How can we restore American dynamism and build an economy in which workers can truly thrive?
That question is at the heart of a new paper, “The Case for Economic Dynamism and Why it Matters for the American Worker.”
The decline and potential rebirth of American Dynamism
It is a popular myth that the 21st century has been a period of unprecedented economic change and transformation. In reality, American dynamism has been in a decades-long retreat. In the years leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic, startup rates languished near all-time lows. Fewer companies were going public. Corporate America looked old and complacent. Increasingly, too, did American demography. Productivity growth decelerated in spite of promising new technologies. And a country whose people were once known for their restless, pioneering spirit became increasingly stuck in place.

All core metrics of dynamism

have been declining compared to

their 1980 levels

Change compared to 1980 levels

Share of total employment in startups

20%

0%

1980

-20%

2019

-40%

Job reallocation rate

20%

1980

0%

-20%

-40%

2019

Interstate migration

20%

1980

0%

-20%

-40%

2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics;

U.S. Census Bureau’s Historical Migration and

Geographic Mobility Tables

All core metrics of dynamism have been declining

compared to their 1980 levels

Change compared to 1980 levels

Share of total

employment in startups

Job

reallocation rate

Interstate

migration

20%

0%

1980

-20%

-40%

2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau’s

Historical Migration and Geographic Mobility Tables

All core metrics of dynamism have been declining compared to their 1980 levels

Change compared to 1980 levels

Share of total

employment in startups

Job reallocation rate

Interstate migration

20%

0%

1980

-20%

-40%

2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Dynamics Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau’s Historical Migration and Geographic Mobility Tables

To the surprise of many observers, the pandemic has jolted several key indicators of economic dynamism–at least temporarily–back to life, as Americans are switching jobs and starting businesses at rates not seen in decades. Look beyond the current momentum, however, and it remains clear that powerful headwinds are working against a return to the high-churn qualities that once characterized our economy. These headwinds include our demographic transformation into a rapidly aging society with minimal population growth, a drastic slowdown in the velocity with which knowledge moves through the economy, and the sclerotic buildup of vested interests, domineering incumbents, and veto-wielding stakeholders throughout economic and social life. The weight of these forces makes it harder to build, move, switch jobs, start firms, and compete in the United States, and each calls for a forceful policy response.
The path to renewal
As we emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers confront a high-stakes opportunity to restore U.S. economic dynamism and forge a more optimistic, aspirational future for American workers. Such an agenda should be rooted in three fundamental policy goals that would deliver large and widespread benefits for all Americans at virtually no cost to taxpayers.
Americans shouldn’t settle for a future of complacency and managed decline. Policy mistakes compounded over decades have contributed heavily to the country’s diminished vitality, but it is not too late to change course. And change is urgently needed, because a dynamic economy is one that offers the most abundant opportunities for workers to thrive, as well as the best chance to ensure that all Americans share in the benefits of economic growth.